Analyzing conflicting statements from U.S. officials regarding military action against Venezuela presents three potential scenarios for Washington's strategy:

Coup or Internal Insurrection with U.S. Support: In this scenario, Washington expects parts of the military to revolt, receiving logistical and possibly military backing from the U.S.
Direct Military Attack: This involves severe strikes on Venezuelan military installations and attempts to capture President Maduro by U.S. special forces. Alongside this, Washington may rely on media efforts to promote opposition figures like Nobel Peace Prize winner Ms. Machado.
Broad Political Pressure Following Limited Strikes: This could lead to new elections, allowing Washington to help its favored opposition come to power. Trump emphasized on October 30, 2025, that there are no plans for a large-scale attack.
Conversely, Maduro has proposed managing oil resources through agreements with the U.S. to ease tensions, which Trump rejected, indicating Venezuela's deep concerns about a potential U.S. assault and a desire for a diplomatic resolution.

Washington appears hopeful that a limited military operation, combined with political and economic pressure, can topple Maduro without full-scale intervention. However, this strategy aligns with the current military presence, which is more than drug interdiction but stops short of full engagement. The uncertainty of this ambiguous scenario is that it could quickly spiral out of control into full-scale war.