Iran: Inside the battle to succeed supreme leader Khamenei

The final judgment may rest with God. But there is a lot of manoeuvring in Tehran to influence the decision on who will be Iran’s next supreme leader. There is no public succession plan for the most powerful position in the Islamic republic, which has been entrusted since 1989 to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Discussion of the subject is all but forbidden while the 77-year-old remains active, delivering speeches and attending military parades.

Nevertheless Iran’s landmark deal with the US and other major powers to scrap its nuclear programme — triggering a lifting of nuclear-related sanctions imposed on the country since 2011— is being interpreted by many in terms of what it may mean for a post-Khamenei Iran and who might run the country.

Reformists want to build on the progress they believe has been made by the centrist Hassan Rouhani, president since 2013, and are pushing for a moderate candidate. Hardliners are determined to do all in their power to stop them. A large number of other interests, from the Revolutionary Guards to the clerics in the holy cities of Qom and Mashhad, will have a say. Some are even privately suggesting that the position, introduced after the 1979 Islamic revolution to have a senior cleric in charge of the country, may no longer be necessary — raising questions over the future of the theocratic state.

“The nuclear agreement has rocked Iran’s political establishment,” says one senior reformist politician. “Succession has become a bigger worry than before.”

No major development can happen in Iran without the supreme leader’s backing. His authority underpins much of life in the republic, from the economy to family planning and education. There would not have been a nuclear deal without his agreement, but he remains wary of US intentions. According to those close to him, he is opposed to being replaced by anyone who might leave the door open to Washington — still regarded as the country’s arch-enemy — to increase its influence in the country and undermine Islamic rule.

The battle between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump to be the next US president is therefore being watched intently in Tehran. Reformists believe Mrs Clinton would pursue further implementation of the deal but they see Mr Trump’s anti-Iran rhetoric as useful to hardliners who want to portray themselves as hawks who can stand up to the US.

“Rouhani and his team want to use the shock of the nuclear agreement to push for fast economic and political reforms with the help of the US,” says a relative of Ayatollah Khamenei. “But the supreme leader is wary that this rush would make the system vulnerable to US ‘infiltration’.”
Heavy burden

Ayatollah Khamenei rarely cries during public speeches. So when state media showed him bursting into tears at a March meeting of the Experts’ Assembly, the clerical body tasked with choosing his successor should he die during its eight-year term, viewers found it shocking. “Infiltration [into Iran’s political system] is a serious plot by Americans,” he told senior clerics. “This infiltration has targeted officials … to make decisions that it [the US] pursues … and make people change belief in political Islam.”

The speech to the Experts’ Assembly — and others made by the supreme leader this year — have been interpreted as a sign that the succession has become an even heavier burden on him since the completion of the nuclear deal with the US, UK, France, Russia, China and Germany. Observers say his anxiety is driven by fears over the possible effects of the accord on Iran’s political and economic structures and its subsequent choice of supreme leader.

The position of velayat-e faqih(supreme jurisprudence) was created by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the republic’s founder. But it has been occupied for all but 10 years of the Islamic republic’s life by Ayatollah Khamenei. It allows a senior cleric to rule in the absence of the Prophet Mohammed.

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https://www.ft.com/content/5fbc8192-321a-11e6-bda0-04585c31b153