Nuclear Deal Fuels Iran’s Hard-Liners

The Obama administration’s nuclear deal was intended to keep Iran from pursuing an atomic bomb, and raised hope in the West that Tehran would be nudged toward a more moderate path.

But there are growing fears in Washington and Europe that the deal—coupled with an escalating conflict with Saudi Arabia—instead risks further entrenching Iran’s hard-line camp.

Since completion of the agreement in July, Tehran security forces, led by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, have stepped up arrests of political opponents in the arts, media and the business community, part of a crackdown aimed at ensuring Mr. Khamenei’s political allies dominate national elections scheduled for Feb. 26, according to Iranian politicians and analysts.

“Americans have set their eyes covetously on elections, but the great and vigilant nation of Iran will act contrary to the enemies’ will, whether it be in elections or on other issues, and as before will punch them in the mouth,” he told a meeting of prayer leaders this week.

The feud between Tehran and Riyadh, sparked by the execution of a prominent Shiite cleric in Saudi Arabia, could also strengthen hard-line nationalist forces in Iran. U.S. officials fear the conflict could undermine international efforts to end the civil wars in Syria and Yemen. Iran and Saudi Arabia joined international talks in Vienna late last year that put in place a timeline to end the war in Syria. The future of the talks is now uncertain.

And in a challenge to the U.S., Iran in recent weeks tested two ballistic missiles and fired rockets near U.S. naval vessels in the Persian Gulf.

U.S. and European officials had hoped the nuclear accord would broaden cooperation with Tehran, and empower Iranian President Hassan Rouhani to promote democratic change. He was elected in 2013 on a platform to end the nuclear standoff and build bridges to the West.

The agreement, which calls for Iran to scale back its nuclear work in exchange for removal of international sanctions, fueled euphoria in Tehran among residents, students and business executives seeking greater freedom.

But the continuing purge and the conflict with Saudi Arabia stand to weaken Mr. Rouhani, a moderate Islamic cleric who backed the nuclear deal that involved more than two years of negotiations by his closest aides.

As much as $100 billion in frozen revenues are expected to return to Iran after sanctions are lifted, which U.S. officials said could happen in coming weeks. The White House hoped the cash windfall would aid Mr. Rouhani’s political fortunes. But Iranian academics close to Mr. Rouhani are increasingly concerned Mr. Khamenei will use the money and diplomatic rewards to entrench hard-line allies, at the expense of the president.

Many of the companies about to be removed from international blacklists are part of military and religious foundations, including some that report directly to Mr. Khamenei. Those firms could be the first to benefit from the rush of international businesses looking to profit from the lifting of sanctions.

A senior Obama administration official said Wednesday that it was too early to gauge the political fallout created in Iran by the nuclear agreement: “There is the opposite case to make,” the official said, “that as sanctions relief comes into play it will dilute the hold on power of the old guard.”

Mr. Khamenei, who gave lukewarm support to the deal, has said the U.S. would use the accord to try to sabotage his country’s Islamic revolution. “We won’t allow American political, economic or cultural influence in Iran,” the 76-year-old supreme leader said in August.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/nuclear-deal-fuels-irans-hard-liners-1452294637