Who Will Succeed Ayatollah Khameini?

Huffington Post - Ever since Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was appointed Iran's Supreme Leader in 1989, there has been a power struggle in Iran between two groups. In one group are the moderates, reformists and liberals who want to open Iran's political system and make Iran a normal, non-revolutionary state. The second group consists of those who want to keep Iran in a permanent revolutionary state, preserve its theocracy, and oppose rapprochement with the West.

Ayatollah Khamenei is 76 years old. Rumors about his health have been circulating for at least 15 years. They became more credible when he underwent prostate surgery in 2014, and even more so when in a speech to the Revolutionary Guards officer corps in September of 2015 Khamenei said, "Iran's enemies are waiting for a time when the nation and system fall asleep, for example in 10 years when I may not be here, to realize their objectives," which he believes are trying to infiltrate Iran to gain influence. Thus, the question of Khamenei's successor grows more relevant each year.

But, several very recent developments have added to the intrigue. The first one wasthe announcement by Hassan Khomeini, a grandson of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini that he will run in the elections for the Assembly of Experts on 26 February 2016, the Constitutional body that appoints the Supreme Leader

Then, former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani said in an interview on December 13 that a group of senior clerics in the Assembly is examining potential candidates to be the next Supreme Leader. Rafsanjani has also been advocating a "leadership council," instead of the Supreme Leader, which has angered the hardliners.

These developments brought to the fore the maneuvering behind the scenes by Khamenei's hardline supporters on the one hand, and the reformists and moderates, on the other hand. Both Rafsanjani and the young Khomeini are in the latter group. The moderates and reformers are hoping to send a group of like-minded clerics to the Assembly, so that if Khamenei's successor is to be selected, they can influence the outcome.

Who are the potential successors to Khamenei's? What is their background? This article describes some of them.

Ayatollah Sayyed Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi was born in Najaf, Iraq, in 1948. He received his theological education in Najaf, and a leader of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) in 1982, which was the umbrella organ for two key Shia militias Iran funded and trained to oppose Saddam Hussein.

Shahroudi served as Iran's judiciary chief from 1999-2009, and is close to Khamenei. Many believe that he has been the Supreme Leader's mentor. He is a traditional conservative, and has been described as brilliant by his peers for his knowledge of Islamic jurisprudence.

Shahroudi was appointed the judiciary chief when former reformist President Mohammad Khatami was trying to implement his reforms. At that time Shahroudi spoke about the imperativeness of "judicial reforms" and the fact that he had inherited an "utterly ruined judiciary." Those statements gave hope to the moderates and Reformists that he would depoliticize the judiciary, freeing it from the pressure by the hardliners. He did implement some reforms, including a moratorium on the punishment by stoning (the practice has been reduced, but has not completely ended); decriminalizing certain offenses, and adding limited amendments to family law in favor of women by raising the legal age for girls to get married from 9 to 13. He also restored most of the structure of the judiciary that his predecessor, cleric Mohammad Yazdi, the current Chairman of the Assembly, had dismantled.

But, Shahroudi was ineffective in ending arbitrary arrests of political activists, journalists and human rights advocates; cruel and inhumane treatment of prisoners, which is often accompanied by torture; biased, and often totally unlawful trials behind closed doors, etc. He did not try or was unable to do anything about the arbitrary closure of hundreds of newspapers, weeklies, and monthly publications. Under him, the judiciary even tried to prosecute the Majles deputies that had protested the crackdown on the dissidents.

Shahroudi is now a member of the Expediency Discernment Council, another constitutional body that acts as advisor to Khamenei. He is also a member of the Guardian Council, and the Assembly of Experts. If he were to succeed Khamenei, he would perhaps take somewhat more moderate approaches to both domestic issues and foreign policy than Khamenei, as he is not close to the radical hardliners. Because he is a recognized Islamic scholar, he has the authority that Khamenei lacked when he came to power. That could enable him to enact some modest reforms.

Born in August of 1934, and a key member of the ruling elite since the 1979 revolution,Rafsanjani needs no introduction. He has been a two-term president, speaker of the parliament, commander of the armed forces during much of the Iran-Iraq war (a post that was given to him by Khomeini), Chairman of the Assembly of Expert, and of the Expediency Discernment Council. He is still influential, is an ally of Rouhani, and has wide support among senior clerics.

But Rafsanjani is also 81 years old and despised by the hardliners. Ever since the election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as the president in 2005, the hardliners have been attacking Rafsanjani, trying to strip his political influence. Ahmad Jannati, the reactionary Secretary-General of the Guardian Council has called him a dog. Mesbah Yazdi has referred to him as a "smuggler." His daughters, Faezeh and Fatemeh, and son Mehdi Hashemi have all been prosecuted, and many senior IRGC commanders are fiercely opposed to him. Most recently, Hossein Fadaei, a hardliners with close ties to the IRGC threatened him with house arrest.

In his current confrontation with the hardliners, Rafsanjani is seemingly pursuing three goals. One immediate goal is to pressure the hardliners to allow a large number of moderates and reformists to run in the upcoming elections. The second goal is to change the composition of the Assembly of Experts, so that if the time comes for selecting the next Supreme Leader, Rafsanjani and his supporters can play a decisive role. If he achieves these two, then the ultimate goal, controlling the IRGC, and eliminating the hardliners from the judiciary will become possible.

Rafsanjani has always been a pragmatist, and over the last several years his views have gradually become closer to those of the Reformists. If he were to be the Supreme Leader, he may try to democratize the system somewhat by diluting the absolute power that the Supreme Leader has enjoyed.

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