Can Russia’s New Iran Alliance Last?

DUBAI—By entering the Syrian war, Russia has joined hands with Iran in trying to rescue President Bashar al-Assad’s regime. But is this a durable alliance—or just a temporary convergence of interests that may implode as the conflict progresses?

Militarily, Russia’s air power, signals intelligence and advanced weapons perfectly complement the ground troops and human intelligence provided by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps. Both nations share the immediate goal of preventing a collapse of the regime in Damascus, and of helping it regain some land recently lost to the rebels.

For now, this united front between Russia and Iran in the Middle East presents a formidable challenge to the U.S. and its allies, projecting power from the Caspian to the Mediterranean seas—and forestalling Tehran’s opening to the West in the wake of this year’s nuclear deal.

But both countries’ Syrian policies are driven by fundamentally different long-term approaches. That could result in real tension, especially if the fighting doesn’t go as planned in coming months—and later if peace talks on how to divide the spoils of war become serious.

“So far, Russia and Iran have been pretty efficient in projecting the illusion that their agenda is similar in Syria. But it is a very wrong impression,” said Jean-Pierre Filiu, a specialist on the region at Sciences Po university in Paris and a former diplomatic adviser to the French prime minister.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/can-russias-new-iran-alliance-last-1445534148