Could Saudi Arabia push back against Russia in Syria?

On Oct. 1, Saudi Ambassador to the United Nations Abdallah Al-Mouallimi demanded that Russia end its raids on Syria. Clearly this is not going to happen as Russia, together with its key regional ally Iran and its proxy Hezbollah, continue to intensify their campaign to prop up their ally Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. This leads to the question as to whether Saudi Arabia will try to push back against Moscow and if they do what this would mean for the region.

While the Saudi's have strongly opposed Russia's Syria policy since the beginning of the Revolution, the increase in oil production, which has had a negative impact on Russia's economy, was almost certainly a signal of this displeasure -- at the same time contacts have continued. During the visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to Riyadh in July, agreements were signed on everything from military ties to energy development. It remains to be seen whether the escalating tensions between the two will lead to a scrapping of these deals.

Saudi Arabia is furious about the agreement that Russia has entered into with its regional foe, Iran, as well as Iraq to coordinate military efforts. First, because all three states want to strengthen Assad and second, Saudi Arabia does not want to see the rise of Iran in the region, which Riyadh considers a threat to its own regional role and security. Furthermore, despite good ties with Saudi Arabia, Egypt has also expressed support for Russia's campaign, with Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukr recently stating “Russia's intervention in Syria will curtail the spread of terrorism and help deal a fatal blow to ISIS [another acronym for the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, aka ISIL] in the war-torn country”. This support reflects Putin's strong backing of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi's regime, at a time when Russian ties with the West are at rock-bottom and Cairo's are lukewarm. In a state visit to Russia by el-Sisi in August, the two countries called for a coalition to fight terrorism in the Middle East.

Sunni's fighting in Syria, whether they be Jihadis or moderates, are also incensed by Russia's military campaign, which increases the likelihood of them joining ISIL unless they receive a boost in terms of military assistance and support. Despite Moscow declaring it is fighting against ISIL and other terrorist groups (which Moscow seems to deem as everything apart from Assad and the Syrian Kurds), Moscow and its allies have spent more time targeting the Western-backed moderate opposition rather than ISIL. Clearly this is aimed at leaving only two groups on the ground: ISIL and Assad, which would push the West into cooperating with Assad to fight ISIL.

For the Saudis, Russia's intervention represents a serious obstacle to their objectives in the region, in terms of the future leadership they would like to have in Syria. Saudi history shows that they are ready to take serious measures to achieve their objectives. In the past, the Saudi's used their hydrocarbon wealth to push back against the spread of communism in the Arab world by committing billions of dollars to countries such as Egypt, Pakistan and Chad. And of course there was Afghanistan. Saudi Arabia -- along with the US, Pakistan and others -- supported the Mujahideen against Soviet occupation. More recently, the hard-hitting Saudi-led military coalition in Yemen has come under increasing international criticism, including by the UN.

Unfortunately, with growing proxy warfare, regional security is becoming increasingly perilous. Lebanon has become a particular hotspot with rising sectarianism. Politicians and factions backed alternately by Iran and Saudi Arabia are at odds over the appointment of a new president, which the country has been without for 15 months. Many in Lebanon believe that neither side will make the necessary compromises for a political agreement until there is a clear sign of whose patron has won the proxy battle in Syria: Iran or Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia has been financing groups in Syria, including Jaish al-Fatah and Jaish al-Islam for the last three years. With the stakes so high the question arises whether Riyadh will increase this support. If the Russians are going to be significantly pushed back it would require more than a much greater arming of jihadists including anti-aircraft weapons. Yet Syria is not Afghanistan and such a step would bring the war to another and more dangerous level, with severe consequences for the region and beyond.

http://www.todayszaman.com/columnist/amanda-paul/could-saudi-arabia-push-back-against-russia-in-syria_401736.html