Saturday 26 September 2015

U.S. Moves on Russia Ties; Iran Holds Back

President Barack Obama and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to talks while at the United Nations next week, a meeting that carries potentially far-reaching implications for long-strained East-West relations.

At the same time, Mr. Obama arrives in New York struggling to advance U.S. relations with Iran beyond the breakthrough nuclear deal reached this summer, with no meetings scheduled with that country’s leader.

The contrasting dynamics underscore the uncertainties in U.S. foreign policy at a time when Mr. Obama is seeking to make strides, particularly on the crisis in Syria, with just over a year left in his presidency.

Mr. Obama, Mr. Putin and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani are to address the U.N. General Assembly on Monday. For Mr. Putin, it will be his first appearance there in a decade.

But the Russian leader has already made a dramatic return to the world stage—by putting boots on the ground in Syria, where Mr. Obama has been reluctant to invest U.S. resources.

Mr. Putin has provided little clarity about his military intentions in Syria, despite talks between American and Russian officials in recent weeks. The Obama-Putin meeting holds out the prospect of clarification.

“It could potentially lay the groundwork for better coordination,” White House press secretary Josh Earnest said. “It’s a proposition worth testing.”

Mr. Obama has sought to isolate Mr. Putin since Russia’s intervention in Ukraine, and for days the White House weighed the Russian leader’s request for a meeting in New York. They last met in June 2013 in Northern Ireland, but Mr. Obama canceled a meeting later that year after Moscow gave asylum to National Security Agency leaker Edward Snowden.

Mr. Obama’s aides said his top agenda item with the Russian leader on Monday will be Ukraine, and the president may try to use Mr. Putin’s ambitions in Syria as leverage to try to change Moscow’s position on the conflict.

But a resolution in Syria is one of Mr. Obama’s top foreign-policy goals, and the White House sees Russia—as well as Iran—as critical to that effort.

Mr. Obama plans to press Mr. Putin to help broker a resolution to the 4½-year war in Syria that includes President Bashar al-Assad relinquishing power and bringing Moscow into the U.S.-led fight against Islamic State militants, White House officials said.

Iran also is a core component of any Syria resolution, and administration officials hoped to quickly move to discussions with Tehran on that issue after reaching the nuclear deal. But that effort seems stalled for now.

Secretary of State John Kerry will meet with Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif over the weekend.

Administration officials have said Mr. Obama is open to meeting with Iran’s president. But the Iranians have indicated to the U.S. that it won’t happen, underscoring the difficulty of redefining relations after decades of hostility.

Mr. Rouhani arrived in New York on Thursday with a mandate to convey the message that Iran is open to the world, according to analysts and diplomats inside Iran. But when it comes to the U.S., Iran is drawing a red line.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has said in speeches in the past month that engaging with the U.S. beyond the nuclear topic is prohibited.

Mr. Rouhani told CBS television’s “60 Minutes” in an interview this week that “many steps have to be taken before we reach such a stage.”

Saeed Laylaz, an influential political analyst in Tehran, said a meeting between the presidents “would escalate tensions inside Iran and given Mr. Khamenei’s warning, it would be viewed as a slap in the face to the supreme leader.”

Still, Iran has come a long way. A few years ago, a direct meeting between Iranian and American foreign ministers or a phone call between the leaders of the two nations was considered a taboo.

“The president is willing to engage President Rouhani if it can make constructive progress,” said Ben Rhodes, a deputy national security adviser.

The U.S. dynamic with Iran and Russia is increasingly coalescing around Syria, which will be the focus of a series of high-level discussions next week.

Assistant Secretary of State Sheba Crocker said the U.S. told Moscow it doesn’t support a Russian draft resolution on Syria at the U.N. Security Council. The U.S. believes it could set back efforts to reach a negotiated political solution, and is at odds with the efforts of the U.S.-led coalition against Islamic State, she said.

The U.S. military and independent analysts have observed a steady Russian military buildup in Syria in recent days. Less clear, however, is Mr. Putin’s strategy.

Both Syrian and Iranian officials have said they see a potential direct role for Russian forces in “antiterrorist” operations in the Middle East. U.S. officials, while saying they would welcome Russia’s participation, are critical of Moscow’s interest in involving the Assad regime.

Write to Carol E. Lee at [email protected], Nathan Hodge at [email protected] and Farnaz Fassihi at [email protected]




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