Is this the beginning of the end of Islamic Republic?

History shows us that in order for a revolution to succeed, two things have to happen at the same time. First, a significant increase in the masses' expectations – for example, for an improvement in their economic situation. This process incorporates a strong dimension of instability: If the expectations and promises are not fulfilled, the disappointment could lead to a wave of frustration.

The second condition is a weakening of the existing political system. It can happen because of economic failures, administrative ineptitude, lack of self-confidence, and in many cases – following military failures as well.

Understanding these parallel processes provides us with a different outlook on what could happen in the Iranian society after the final draft of the nuclear agreement is signed.

The radicals who actually control Iran – the supreme leader and the Revolutionary Guards commanders – have presented the United States for years as the "Great Satan." It was the main justification for the ongoing oppression of the Iranian people: In order to deal with the American threat, order and discipline are needed.

But this argument did not "hold water" among the majority of the Iranian public, which is basically in favor of reforms. According to certain surveys, the Iranians are the most pro-American nation among the region's Muslim people. The Western news and cultural values – which are accessible through satellite dishes which are very common in Iran – are an influential factor there. How can the image of the US as the "Great Satan" be maintained, if an agreement is being signed with the US?

The outburst of joy and dancing on the night the framework agreement was signed with the world powers in April undoubtedly reflected the celebrators' anticipation that their lives would improve overnight. That expectation is unrealistic of course: It will take a long time before the sanctions are removed, and even then the improvement in the state's economy won't be immediate.

But it's very possible that the joy among the masses also reflects the hope that this is the beginning of the end of the Islamic Republic. This could explain statements made by radical officials like the commander of the Basij militia, General Mohammad Reza, who referred to the Americans as "liars" after the agreement was signed, and claimed that wiping Israel off the map was nonnegotiable.

The Iranian society is fundamentally pluralistic and is blessed with an outstanding number of intellectuals compared to the rest of the region's countries. The left, which has failed to oppose the regime so far in light of its hostility towards American imperialism, may now team up with the moderate opposition on the streets.

In Gabriel García Márquez's book "The General in His Labyrinth," about the last days of Simón Bolívar, one of his followers says that the irony of fate is that the ideas of freedom have instilled so deeply among the people, that "they now seek to bid farewell to us." This allegory reminds us of the paradox which says that a toppled regime is always more generous than the regime which came before it, and that there is nothing that crushes dictators more effectively than raising the expectations among the masses.

As the talks are being renewed these days ahead of the target date for a permanent agreement in the end of June, this scenario should also be taken into account.

Arie Geronik
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4663603,00.html