Rouhani Under a Pincer Attack

Rooz Online

As Hassan Rouhani’s administration continues to make gradual improvements in Iran’s regional and international standing, it is also coming under increasing scrutiny and attacks from hardline political and military quarters. This was expected but the level of the attacks has now shifted to threats of “dismissal” and “ousting.”

In the latest attack, Javad Karimi Ghodoosi, a hardline member of parliament’s national security and foreign policy committee verbally warned that if “Rouhani did not retract his comments” – that the police in Iran did not have the duty of enforcing Islamic laws, only the laws – and did not repent in front of the ulema (senior ayatollahs) and the martyrs, and did not apologize to the people, Islam would impose on him what it has imposed in the past.”

Mohammad-Ali Asoodi, ayatollah Khamenei’s representative in the Revolutionary Guards Corps used different language but the same message when he said Rouhani should learn from what happened to Bani-Sadr, the first president of the Islamic regime after 1979. He was impeached by the Majlis but fled the country before it.

Three senior clerics from Ghom also issued statements strongly criticizing Rouhani.

All signs indicate that the group that at one time viewed Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to be closest to its views not only cannot tolerate the likes of Mir-Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karoubi, Mohammad Khatami, and Hashemi Rafsanjani but it cannot accept a second term for Rouhani either. It is using every tool at its disposal to discredit and ultimately remove him from office half way into his presidency.

While it seems unlikely that the current parliament can muster a two thirds vote to remove Rouhani from office, but since most of the current Majlis representatives are predicted not to be reelected in February 2016, they see the moment as their only chance to take action. The next Majlis is expected to be mostly composed of more moderate elements.

The constitution allows the Majlis – through a two thirds vote - to summon the president who will have thirty days to go to parliament and convince the lawmakers of his policies and qualifications to stay in office. If two thirds of the deputies give him a vote of no confidence, then his disqualification will be communicated to the supreme leader for a decision.

Now that it appears the hardliners have decided to remove the chief executive, one way to stop them is for him to get a larger support from the public by implementing parts of the constitution that have remained on paper and fulfilling his election promises.

The president has already taken this direction and made efforts to promote this in a regime that grapples with “parallel administrations.” He needs to streamline policies and operations to keep the public hopeful, so that when election time arrives, they know who to vote for. Even if that means casting a “protesting vote.”