Houthi expansion threatens Yemen’s strategic Bab al-Mandab strait

Houthi militants are expanding their presence into western Yemen around a vital maritime corridor that controls access to the Red Sea, a potential threat for some of the 8 per cent of global trade that runs through the Suez Canal.

The Bab al-Mandab strait separates the Arabian Peninsula from east Africa and links the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean. Most ships using the waterway have come from, or are going to, Egypt’s Suez Canal, which connects the Red Sea with the Mediterranean and which contributes about $5bn a year to the Egyptian economy.

About 4 per cent of the global oil supply, much of it from Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf states, passes through the strait, which is 29km wide at its narrowest point.

But Egyptian and Saudi concerns over Bab al-Mandab have been growing since the increasingly powerful Houthis took control of the western port of Hodeidah on 15 October and began increasing its presence in Taiz province bordering the strait.

The Houthis have in recent years been transformed from a revivalist movement for the Zaydi Shia form of Islam into Yemen’s most powerful militia. Following a series of victories this year the group in September routed a military unit once seen as the country’s most feared and seized control of Sana’a, Yemen’s capital.

Egyptian worries that the Houthis could interfere with shipping in Bab al-Mandab were underscored less than a week after Hodeidah was seized when they insisted 70 Egyptians caught fishing illegally in Yemeni waters be detained and prosecuted.

“Normally the coastguard and local officials would sit with the Egyptians and resolve the issue,” said a Yemeni ports official, explaining that a bribe would usually be paid to secure their freedom. But this time, the Houthis insisted the men be prosecuted.
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A Yemeni government official said talks with Egypt over the incident were continuing, without giving further details. Egyptian diplomats are said to be furious and Cairo has already warned that it may intervene militarily if the Houthis take control of Bab al-Mandab.

But Hussein al-Bokhaiti, a pro-Houthi activist, said concerns the Yemeni group would seek to take control of Bab al-Mandab were overplayed. “This is just propaganda against us, to make the international community and Egypt fear us. All the areas we are in Yemen is where we have a popular base. We do not have support around Bab al-Mandab so we would not go there.”

Developments on the strait are also unnerving Saudi Arabia. Riyadh believes the Houthis are backed by Iran, and worries that its regional rival could be using its influence to disrupt Red Sea trade. Tehran has threatened in the past to block the Straits of Hormuz, the region’s other chokepoint, through which a fifth of global oil supply passes on a daily basis.

Richard Dalton, a former UK ambassador to Iran and an associate fellow at the UK think-tank Chatham House, said it was unlikely Tehran would seek to work with the Houthis to disrupt trade, as it would not take the risk of provoking a wider conflict in the region.

“[The Iranians] are very pro-free passage for everyone in their waterways. They only get bellicose when people threaten to make the Gulf, which is their lifeline, unusable by them, especially for oil exports.”

This view was contradicted by Andreas Krieg, assistant professor at the Defence Studies Department at King’s College, London.

“[It] is plausible that the Iranians, who have made a recent commitment to support the [Houthis], could use the port [Hodeidah] to ship arms from Sudan via Djibouti. I think that would be a more serious concern for Saudi than merely the interruption of trade in the region.”

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2014.