Can Obama be stopped or will Iran go nuclear?

If you are worried President Obama will strike an awful deal with Iran, Congress will pass sanctions and override a veto, but Obama will waive sanctions anyway — and you should be worried — consider what former Bush administration official and critic, Jack Goldsmith says: “Without getting into the details, it nonetheless appears that the President can waive most if not all sanctions against Iran for the remaining two years of his term if he is willing to make the requisite findings. If he does so, what are the implications for any nuclear deal with Iran? Answer: The deal will be tenuous.” In fact, no one — not Congress nor his successor would be bound. “The fact that the President does not think he can get Congress on board for any deal with Iran signals to Iran that any deal would be with the President alone, and would last only as long as his waiver authority – i.e. two more years.”

That is comforting to a degree, but not altogether satisfying. On one hand, Congress and every presidential candidate can signal they won’t go along with a rotten deal (How about it Hillary Clinton?), thereby letting the Iranians know that they are not getting much of anything. In essence it would make it harder for Obama to give away the store since the Iranians, to the extent they understand our political system, would understand the aren’t getting permanent relief. On the other hand, if Obama goes ahead and suspends sanctions there is a good chance the entire sanctions regime collapses.

We know the Europeans are itching to get into the Iran market. The Jerusalem Post reported, “Two pro-Iran business events in Europe coalesced last week, revealing an assault on the hard-fought US-EU sanctions architecture to isolate the Islamic Republic. The first Europe-Iran Forum, which took place on Wednesday and Thursday in London, stated its goal as ‘preparing post-sanctions investment and trade.’” It was quite an affair: “A who’s who of powerhouse global companies and law firms, ranging from the auctioneer Sotheby’s to Dentons law firm, attended the event. While the Obama administration stated that it will come down like ‘a ton of bricks’ on companies that violate sanctions, their apparent relaxation has provided a psychological and economic boost to Iran.” Any hint of sanctions suspension by the United States would no doubt open the floodgates. And Russia and China will relish the opportunity to make trouble and secure Iran’s goodwill.

The end result would be a deal that expires when Obama leaves and a sanctions regime in tatters. Iran will then have exactly what it wants — relief from sanctions, a deal that doesn’t block it from acquiring a nuclear weapons capability (and will technically expire unless the next president embraces it) and a revived economy. Game, set and match to the mullahs.

If the president really wanted a deal to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, he would use the leverage he has, the threat of new sanctions, to move the mullahs. But frankly, he has done nothing to indicate he wants to up the pressure on them. To the contrary, the stream of leaks suggests the president is still throwing out one concession after another. Why should the mullahs make any deal that commits them to any permanent dismantling of their program? All they need do is wait for concession after concession to pile up.

It is entirely possible the president would then bequeath to his successor a Hobson’s choice (unless Israel acted militarily before that): Strike Iran militarily or accept it as a nuclear state. Is this grossly irresponsible and hugely injurious to our national security and Israel? Yes. And don’t forget he thereby would also bequeath a nuclear arms race in the Middle East.

This is no easy problem to solve. Trying to shake Obama from his stupor and resist his inclination for appeasement are virtually impossible as we have seen in a myriad of international conflicts. That said, responsible leaders must try. As soon as the election results are in, it behooves Republicans and Democrats in Congress to figure out how to prevent this result. A united front and a determination to stick to the Obama administration’s own goal of preventing Iran from getting the bomb will be essential. Otherwise the civilized world will be dependent on tiny Israel to maintain a credible military threat, and, if need be strike Iran.

The Washington Post