Has Khamenei Given Up?

Roozonline - Ayatollah Khamenei’s speech on Wenesday to a group of Iranian foreign policy officials is significant because its wording suggests that he has lost all faith in the settlement of the nuclear crisis through the current talks between Hassan Rouhani’s administration and the P5+1 major powers. He seems to be preparing the groundwork for ending his support for the talks. Is this the end of the talks for all practical purposes?

While Mr. Khamenei had in the past only said – and very expressly - that he was not optimistic about the future of the nuclear talks with the West, now, after eight months of talks, he indicated that his pessimism had actually turned into a fact and that the talks had only made the US more aggressive, demanding and insulting. The only success the talks have had from his perspective was to prove his point that the West and the US did not want to resolve the nuclear disagreement.

“This was another invaluable experience (attempt) for all to see that the sittings and talks with the Americans have had absolutely no impact on reducing their animosity, and are without any benefits,” Khamenei said. The key word here is his use of the past tense for the talks: he said “ … was another experience … .” In addition, his use of the word “absolutely” closes all doors for reasons to keep talking.

He continued, “Some in the past (a reference to Ahmadinejad’s administration) advanced the notion that many of our problems would be solved if we sat around the negotiations table with the Americans. We of course knew that this was not the case. The events of the past year have proven this reality for the umpteenth time.” He continued, “Not only did these contacts not produce any benefits, the tone of the Americans became harsher and more insulting, and their demands increased during the talks and in public forums.” “Overall, it has become clear that contrary to the views of some, talks have not helped in any way,” he concluded.

Even though Khamenei came short of saying the talks had failed, the words appear to indicate that he has determined the current talks to have reached their dead end. If so, this would also mean that there would be no more concessions from the Iranian side, under the current positions discussed at the talks. Still, even as the words signal Khamenei’s “retrospective” position on the talks, they cannot be translated into a forthcoming announcement of suspension of the talks because of the negative impact such a decision would have on so many different fronts – new international sanctions in particular - and because Khamenei’s record does not indicate that he is a radical decision-maker. His praise for Zarif and the sentence, “Of course we are not banning the continuation of the nuclear talks” supports this.

Loss in faith in the nuclear talks does not also mean that Khamenei has completely lost faith in diplomacy in general because elsewhere in his talk he said, “A wise and active diplomacy can bring very important political, economic, human and social achievements.” But perhaps as importantly, the speech also reveals what tools Khamenei believes help produce “successes” in the international arena. He said, “Some powers tried (in recent years) to acquire interests through force and arms but failed while others met their interests through wisdom and action,” implying the US retreats from Syria (the disregarded red-lines), Iraq (absence of a Status of Forces Agreement), Lebanon (rise of Hezbollah), etc. where the Islamic republic has made inroads and extended its political influence (support for Bashar Assad, influence in Baghdad, Lebanon, etc.).

If Khamenei believes the talks in their current content and scope have reached their end, could Iran’s recent regional behavior such as a relative reticence over the US bombing of the ISIL positions in Iraq – despite Khamenei’s earlier warnings that foreign powers should not intervene in Iraq over the ISIL advances - and its switch in support from Nouri al-Maliki to Haider al-Abadi be actions through which Iran hopes to get some reciprocity in the nuclear talks?

Time will tell what outside issues may influence the dynamics and discussions of the nuclear talks, but as things stand today, Khamenei is closer to be in a position to expressly declare the nuclear talks a “failed experience.”

by Hamid Nazari