Row harder, Rohani

The Economist

FIVE months into Hassan Rohani’s presidency, many Iranians agree that things are looking brighter. But for two men in Tehran, hopes are dimming.

Mir-Hossein Mousavi (pictured right) and Mehdi Karroubi (pictured left), the opposition presidential candidates who in 2009 drew hundreds of thousands to the streets in protest against President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s re-election, have been confined under house arrest for almost three years. The election of Mr Rohani, a centrist who has tried to put a kinder face on the Islamic Republic, raised expectations for their imminent release. But on December 30th scores of high-ranking conservatives used an official anniversary to insist that Mr Karroubi and Mr Mousavi remain under lock and key.

Commemorating the fourth anniversary of December 30th 2009, when nationwide pro-government rallies were staged to squelch opposition to that year’s hotly disputed election results, hard-line officials took turns lashing out at the two reformist leaders. “Sedition leaders are certainly corrupt on earth,” declared Muhammad Reza Naghdi, commander of the powerful baseej militia in a speech in Shahr-e Rey on the outskirts of Tehran, alluding to the most serious charge in the Islamic Republic, which often entails death penalty. “They should be punished and should be a lesson for everyone," he said.

In a press conference, Iran’s police chief, Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam, called the 2009 uprising an “unforgivable sin”. So did the country’s prosecutor-general, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, adding that Mr Mousavi and Mr Karroubi had been spared harsher punishment and merely placed under house arrest because of the “kindness” of the system, according to Fars, a news agency.

Working to release political prisoners, including the two leaders under house arrest, was one of Mr Rohani’s key campaign promises. It won him support from opposition activists and coaxed many would-be boycotters to the polls. Veterans of Mr Mousavi’s Green Movement gleefully chanted their imprisoned leader’s name at election rallies, at no time louder than on the eve of Mr Rohani’s victory. Expectations of a reprieve gathered steam in September with a high-profile release of several political prisoners, including Nasrin Sotoudeh, a human-rights lawyer. A month later Iran’s justice minister announced that the Supreme National Security Council would “review” the house arrests.

It has yet to do so, and this week’s celebrations gave conservatives an opportunity to stifle hopes. The pro-government rallies in 2009 helped turn the tide against what the regime still dubs a Western-backed “sedition”. Since then the regime has used this date to reaffirm allegiance to Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and to drum up resistance against its perceived domestic and foreign enemies. Expressing the view of many conservatives, an editorial in the Kayhan newspaper said the Green Movement had “opened the country's political gates to foreigners and allowed the US, UK, France and Israel to enter the country's politics.”

Mr Rohani appears to have scented danger. Speaking on the anniversary, Iran’s new president avoided any mention of the arrested men while adhering to overall regime lines. People did not participate in the pro-government rallies in 2009 to express support for a particular political front, he said in a cabinet meeting on December 29th. They rather protested against “interference by foreigners in their religious beliefs”.

One of the few public figures to voice support for Mr Mousavi and Mr Karroubi was Ali Motahari, a conservative MP known for his unorthodox opinions. Speaking in parliament, Mr Motahari suggested that a trial in an open court of the opposition leaders and other detainees would “defuse the country's tense atmosphere”. It did not take long for a provincial Revolutionary Guard commander, Gholamhoseyn Gheybparvar, to puncture such high-minded thoughts. “Mr Ali Motahhari is not mentally stable,” he asserted.

However things fall, the authorities are under pressure to find a solution to the house arrests. Mr Mousavi and Mr Karroubi, along with Mr Mousavi’s wife Zahra Rahnavard, who is also detained, are all said to suffer health problems. A humanitarian gesture to lessen their isolation would seem reasonable. Yet the undiminished stridency of the conservatives carries an implicit threat against anyone counselling leniency. Often in the past such threats have turned into nasty realities for Iran’s would-be reformers. For Mr Rohani, always tip-toeing on a tightrope, yesterday made life more difficult still.