Compromise May Be Near for Iran Nuclear Deal

NYTimes

A senior Obama administration official said on Friday that a solution could be found for one of the major stumbling blocks to an agreement that would freeze Iran’s nuclear program, and that the accord might be achieved next week.

“For the first time in nearly a decade,” the official said, “we are getting close to a first step that would stop the Iranian nuclear program from advancing and roll it back in key areas.”

Talks between six world powers and Iran are scheduled to resume in Geneva next week. Western diplomats hope to complete an accord then that would halt Iran’s nuclear efforts for six months while negotiators pursue a more comprehensive agreement that would ensure that Tehran’s program is solely for civilian purposes.

Iran insists that its nuclear program is entirely peaceful, but many experts believe it is intended to provide the country with the capability to develop nuclear weapons.

One of the major impediments to an agreement next week is Iran’s insistence that the international community formally acknowledge its “right” to continue to enrich uranium. The United States asserts that there is no such right under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

But American officials appear to be seeking a solution in which Iran would be allowed to enrich uranium at the low level of 3.5 percent — used to fuel most civilian nuclear reactors — during an interim agreement and under a comprehensive accord. The condition would be that Iran accept a series of limitations, including stringent verification, on its nuclear program to ensure it does not further enrich the uranium to bomb-grade levels and use it to make a nuclear device. Iran now has stockpiles of uranium enriched to nearly 20 percent, which is used to fuel a specialty reactor but is also much closer to weapons-grade uranium.

“I think there is a way to navigate it,” the senior administration official said when asked if a compromise might be found on Iran’s claim of a right to enrich uranium.

The official did not detail the potential compromise. But one solution, Western diplomats say, would be for an interim accord to affirm that Iran would be entitled to all of the rights of signatories to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. Iran and world powers would then agree to disagree on how to interpret that treaty.

“I am sure that whatever gets agreed to in this document, Iran will argue that they have the right to enrichment,” the senior administration official said, referring to the interim accord now under negotiation. “And we will argue, as I am sure the document will make clear, that nothing has been agreed as to the final dimensions of Iran’s peaceful nuclear program once it can assure the international community that it is peaceful.”

During a previous round of talks in Geneva, the two sides appeared to be close to cementing an interim agreement that would temporarily freeze Iran’s nuclear progress in return for modest relief from economic sanctions.

The talks next week will involve Iran and the countries that make up what is called the P5-plus-1: the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council — the United States, France, Britain, Russia and China — plus Germany.

Catherine Ashton, the foreign policy chief of the European Union, will begin the talks on Wednesday by meeting with the Iranian foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif. The negotiations will continue over the next few days. If an agreement appears to be near, Secretary of State John Kerry and other foreign ministers may fly to Geneva to complete the deal.

On Thursday, President Obama urged Congress not to impose additional sanctions on Iran, arguing that it would poison the atmosphere for the talks.

If an interim agreement can be reached, the United States will ease the economic sanctions on Iran, mainly by giving Iran access to its frozen assets. Israeli officials and experts outside government have speculated that Iran might receive $15 billion, or much more, in sanctions relief through this mechanism.

The Obama administration will not say publicly how much relief it is prepared to provide, although some officials have suggested that it could be about $5 billion. Asked about reports that the relief could be $15 billion or $20 billion, the senior administration official said, “It is way south of all of that, and quite frankly it will be dwarfed by the restrictions that are still in place.”

American officials said that the “core” financial and banking sanctions would remain in place during the interim accord, and that they had taken a heavy toll on the Iranian economy.

According to American officials, Iran has about $100 billion in reserves, a vast majority of which is in overseas accounts. Iran has little access to those accounts because of the sanctions. Iran’s oil exports, meanwhile, have shrunk to a million barrels a day, from about two and a half million barrels a day in 2011.

“These declining exports are costing Iran up to $5 billion a month,” a second administration official said, “and have cost Iran, along with our other sanctions, about $120 billion.”

A report by the International Atomic Energy Agency that was issued on Thursday suggested that Iran had suspended some elements of its nuclear program. Administration officials said that the development was welcome but not sufficient.

The prospect that a deal could be reached soon has provoked a storm of protest from Israel and criticism from Republicans and some Democrats. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel has mounted a campaign against the agreement. In a Twitter post on Friday, he cautioned the West not to embrace a “bad deal.”

“Iran is on its knees economically & it’s possible to get a better deal,” Mr. Netanyahu wrote. “Before the sanctions are lessened, get a good deal, not a bad deal.”

David E. Sanger contributed reporting.