Iran stands behind Assad regime

Iran on Tuesday gave its qualified support to Russia’s proposal for Syria to hand over control of its chemical weapons stocks as Tehran’s new government tries to avoid direct confrontation with the US over its support for the regime of Bashar al-Assad.

Hassan Rouhani, Iran’s new centrist president, is keen to improve relations with the international community and negotiate an end to sanctions over his country’s nuclear programme. On Tuesday he indicated Iran’s satisfaction with Russia’s initiative and said Tehran had done its best to prevent a conflict. “The hope [that there will be no war] has strengthened in recent days,” he said.

Marzieh Afkham, a foreign ministry spokeswoman, added that any international supervision of chemical weapons stockpiles should extend to Syria’s rebels.

However, Mr Rouhani has limited control over Syria policy, which is the purview of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, and senior commanders of the Revolutionary Guards.

There is little sign that they are prepared to reduce support for the Assad regime, which they see as a strategic bulwark against the spread of Sunni and US influence in the region, as well as a conduit for suspected military and logistical support of its Hizbollah proxy force in Lebanon.

“Under no condition will Iran drop its support for Hizbollah, and that means we have to continue to support the Syrian government, which we believe still has about 55 per cent popular support,” said one former Iranian diplomat who was involved in Iran’s Middle East policies.

In Tehran, US threats of military strikes against Syria are seen as a warning to Iran that its nuclear sites could face a similar fate should the Islamic regime insist on keeping its uranium enrichment facilities, analysts say.

“There is a strong belief in Iran that when the US talks about the necessity of an attack and more pressure on Syria, the real end target is Iran,” said one regime insider. He added that Iran was doing its best to prevent a war “in co-ordination with Russia”.

Many in Iranian policy circles are sceptical about the Assad regime’s role in the alleged chemical attack and see it as a trap masterminded by Saudi Arabia, Iran’s biggest regional rival. The struggle between Shia Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia for regional influence has escalated following the Arab spring, fuelling sectarian war in the region.

“The [Revolutionary] Guards have little doubt that Saudi Arabia either gave chemical weapons to rebels or did it through its infiltrators in the Syrian army to make the US attack Syria,” added the regime insider, who has links to the Guards, believed to be supporting the Syrian army.

“Otherwise, why should Assad use chemical weapons against civilians – and not even rebels – at a time he didn’t need to do so and after crushing rebels? It doesn’t make sense.”

Iran’s position on Syria could further complicate Mr Rouhani’s efforts to bring an end to the nuclear crisis. “Mr Rouhani would be really unlucky if the Syrian crisis escalates,” said the former diplomat, who is close to the president.

“Rouhani can only try to influence Syria policies and can curb radicalism but he will not be able to change policies and suggest, for instance, that Iran should stop its support for Syria. No one can.”

The possibility of a shift in Iran’s Syria policy was raised after Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, an influential former president, last week accused Mr Assad of using chemical weapons against his own people in a leaked video. Mr Rafsanjani later corrected his comments and said such allegations were not proven.

According to the regime insider, no major policy change on Syria was likely regardless of the impact on nuclear negotiations. “If it is a question of losing a war to Saudi Arabia and if the balance of power in the region is about to alter, then Iran will fully stand up and will do anything it can to prevent it,” he warned.

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2013.