It's hardly a democracy

Bangkok Post

Iran will vote in a little over two weeks for a new president. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, elected in 2005 and re-elected in 2009, is ineligible to run again under the country's term limits. Mr Ahmadinejad was sometimes a thorn in the side of those who actually run Iran, so they have taken steps to try to ensure that cannot happen again. The office of the country's well-named "supreme leader" has disqualified all candidates except for eight of his political best friends.

Those who have mistakenly called Iran a democracy for the past eight years now can see the country's power structure clearly. Iran has become the world's leading proof that elections _ even honest elections _ have little, if anything, to do with democratic rule. As of now, it appears Iran will run an honest election day on Friday, June 14, with honest voting and vote-counting.

But the fix is in. No matter who is picked by the voters, the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei and his Guardian Council win. The upshot is that Iran will adopt more and more policies that take it further from the world mainstream. Mideast relations will suffer and Iran's increasingly secretive nuclear development will cause more tension.

Last week, the Iranian guardians ruled out several serious candidates who were running for president. They included Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the president from 1989 to 1997, and Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei, who has been endorsed by Mr Ahmadinejad as the best man to succeed him. Mr Rafsanjani has been an icon to reformers who have fought the hard-line policies of the traditionalists who control most of Iran's political and religious life. Mr Mashaei has been accused of supporting a liberal view of Islam.

There is no such thing as a perfect analogy, but comparisons can help to emphasise the Iranian dilemma. Barring Mr Rafsanjani from running for president is roughly the same as banning Chuan Leekpai, a prime minister during the 1990s, from running again _ presuming Mr Chuan wanted to run. The ban on Mr Mashaei roughly corresponds with an imagined Thai parliamentary ban on deputy Democrat leader Korn Chatikavanij, or on any of the deputy prime ministers of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra.

Iranian citizens on June 14 will be able to choose their president from among eight cohorts of the ruling regime. The political bans imposed without legal proceedings on well-known public figures removes some voters' powers. Those remaining on the ballot remove the rest.

For all his flamboyant unpleasantness, Mr Ahmadinejad was at least the product of a free election. And while the Islamic Republic never has been a democracy, the election and presence of the feisty president were at least a small balance to the more radical and hard-line views of the powers behind the curtains.

Iran is the largest and most important country that insists on marching to its own tune. The United Nations has heaped sanctions on Teheran, mostly because of its nuclear policies. Neighbours fear Teheran's ambitions, and stage arms races. Iran's continued support and funding of terrorist groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon stoke fears of state-sponsored terrorism from Teheran. The June 14 elections are likely to increase Iran's unneighbourly activities.