Iran Guard Anticipates Domestic Nuke Test

An Iranian nuclear-weapon test would be followed by "an ordinary day," Iran's Revolutionary Guard said in an April article seen by Western intelligence officials as an indicator of significant support within the Middle Eastern state for an atomic detonation, the Associated Press reported on Thursday (see GSN, June 8).

The United States and its allies have long sought to end elements of Iran's nuclear program that could support weapons development; Tehran has insisted its atomic ambitions are strictly peaceful.

"The day after the first Iranian nuclear test for us Iranians will be an ordinary day, but in the eyes of many of us, it will have a new shine, from the power and dignity of the nation," says a translation of the article obtained from a Western source. Iran's Revolutionary Guard posted the text -- titled "The Day After the First Iranian Nuclear Test -- a Normal Day" -- on its Gerdab website (George Jahn, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, June 9).

"It's a good day. It's 7:00 in the morning. The sun is not fully up yet but everywhere is bright. In the northern hemisphere many countries are beginning the day," says a translation of the text published by the London Guardian.

"The day before, probably in central deserts of Iran, where once Americans and some other Western countries wanted to bury their nuclear waste, an underground nuclear explosion has taken place. The strength of the explosion was not so great as to cause severe damage to the region nor so weak that Iranian scientists face any problems in running their tests," the article continues.

By publishing the text, the elite military unit might have been seeking to assuage fears among readers of international retaliation to a potential Iranian nuclear test, according to the Guardian. The article could also have been intended as been a statement of resistance following computer-based strikes on Iran last year; Gerdab is operated by the Revolutionary Guard's Cyber Defense Command, according to outside analysts (see GSN, April 18).

Iran expert Meir Javedanfar said the article violates "a major taboo."

"For now we have to treat it as a one off. However if this report is followed by others similar to it, then it would signify a major change in the way Iran refers to its nuclear program. It would mean that Iran has decided to use the idea of a nuclear bomb as a deterrence against further sanctions and the possibility of a military attack by the West. It could also be a tool for the regime to boost its waning popularity at home," Javedanfar said (Julian Borger, London Guardian, June 8).

Meanwhile, Washington's ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency on Thursday said Iran's stated intention to boost its generation of 20-percent enriched uranium by three times was the "most recent brazen example of its deepening noncompliance" with international commitments, Reuters reported.

The Middle Eastern state last year began further refining low-enriched uranium from its stockpile, ostensibly to fuel a medical isotope production reactor in Tehran. The United States and other Western powers have feared the process could help Iran produce nuclear-weapon material, which requires an enrichment level of roughly 90 percent.

Iran on Wednesday said it would shift its manufacturing of higher-enriched uranium to the new Qum facility and boost generation of the material by threefold.

"Apart from what appears now to be a clear intent to produce more 20 percent-enriched uranium than Iran needs to make fuel for its one and only research reactor, it also represents yet another chapter in the changing Iranian narrative regarding why this underground facility was built," Ambassador Glyn Davies said at a meeting of the 35-nation IAEA governing board (see GSN, Sept. 25, 2009; Westall/Dahl, Reuters I, June 8).

The European Union said in a separate statement: "We note with particular concern the announcement made only today by Iran that it will increase its capacity to enrich (uranium) to 20 percent, thereby further exacerbating its defiance of the United Nations Security Council" (Dahl/Westall, Reuters II, June 8).

A number of independent analysts suggested Iran's production of higher-enriched uranium aims to shorten the period it would require to build a nuclear weapon, the New York Times reported. U.S. government sources have maintained they would see such a move and have sufficient opportunity to react.

Tehran's statement this week could be part of "a possible ongoing effort by Iran to slowly acclimatize the international community to conditions that would make a breakout to nuclear weapons more feasible," the Institute for Science and International Security said in an analysis.

Iran could prepare sufficient material for a nuclear weapon by producing higher-enriched uranium at its Qum facility for one year, ISIS head David Albright said. The uranium would require further enrichment for use in a weapon.

Albright added that the new site is "heavily fortified" and "less vulnerable to aerial strikes" than the Natanz enrichment complex (Sanger/Broad, New York Times, June 8).

Iran on Thursday suggested it had not expected its newly announced enrichment plan to face criticism from other countries, Deutsche Presse-Agentur reported.

"The issue had been brought to the attention of the International Atomic Energy Agency in advance, and there is nothing special about it," the Islamic Republic News Agency quoted Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi as saying (Deutsche Presse-Agentur/Monsters and Critics, June 9).

Separately, the five permanent U.N. Security Council member nations and Germany on Thursday said Iran's "consistent failure" to meet U.N. demands, curb atomic activities and permit tougher IAEA audits has "deepened concerns" over its ambitions, Reuters reported.

"We call on Iran to cooperate fully" with the U.N. nuclear watchdog, the powers said in a joint statement issued at the IAEA governing board meeting.

"Outstanding issues need to be resolved in order to exclude the existence of possible military dimensions to Iran's nuclear program," the group said, without referencing this week's enrichment announcement (see GSN, May 25).

Iran's ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency questioned IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano's objectivity; Amano has adopted a harder line against Iran than former IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei, according to Reuters.

Amano is "not doing his job," Ambassador Ali Asghar Soltanieh said. "Instead, with his reports, he is paving the way for more confrontation between member states" (Westall/Dahl, Reuters III, June 9).

Soltanieh denounced as baseless Amano's reference this week to new data pointing to possible Iranian atomic activities with military elements, Iran's Fars News Agency reported (Fars News Agency I, June 8).

A Chinese envoy on Wednesday called for Iran and the six world powers to pursue further nuclear discussions, the Xinhua News Agency reported (Xinhua News Agency, June 9).

Elsewhere, a planned international nuclear disarmament conference to be held next week in Iran is set to focus on drafting a treaty for the abolition of nuclear armaments, Fars News reported.

Source: NTI - Global Security Newswire