Politics in Iran: Trouble at the top

IN THE Byzantine corridors of Iranian power, a tussle between Iran’s president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and its supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is becoming steadily more bitter. The latest bout began in April when Mr Ahmadinejad discovered that Heidar Moslehi, the minister of intelligence, was bugging the offices of Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei, his own chief of staff and a close ally. Mr Ahmadinejad fired Mr Moslehi. But Mr Khamenei, who dislikes Mr Mashaei, fast reinstated him.

In a huff, Mr Ahmadinejad refused to attend cabinet meetings, cancelled a visit to Qom, Iran’s holiest city, and avoided public appearances for more than a week. He eventually came out of his sulk after nearly 300 MPs urged him in a letter to respect Mr Khamenei’s decision and to resume his duties. Some hinted that he should be impeached.

The president is unlikely to bow out any time soon. He still has enough allies in the majlis, Iran’s parliament, who can generally bully his opponents into line. He enjoys a fair bit of support in rural areas. Mid-ranking members of the Revolutionary Guard and the baseej, a bunch of thuggish volunteer militiamen, still largely back him and some high-ranking clerics in Qom are behind him. There is no constellation aligned against him yet.

But that may change. Mr Ahmadinejad has begun removing subsidies on bread, fuel and other items, reckoned to be worth $100 billion a year. People are feeling the pinch. In recent weeks factory workers have protested outside the presidential office over unpaid wages. In the south others have gone on strike.

Most crucially, the president can no longer rely on the supreme leader, who has the final say in all matters of national import. In the past Mr Ahmadinejad has trodden warily when it comes to Mr Khamenei. Both are conservatives. They have seldom differed on issues such as Iran’s nuclear programme or its regional policies. Theirs is a battle for internal power, in both economic and political fields.

Keep it in the family

Mr Ahmadinejad is looking towards a general election set for March next year which will lay the ground for the presidential one in 2013, when he will step down. He is thought to be keen for Mr Mashaei, whose daughter is said to be married to the president’s son, to succeed him. But the chief of staff has angered many conservatives with his liberal tendencies (he even referred to Israelis in friendly terms) and by championing Iran’s nationalist heritage rather than its Islamic one.

The supreme leader is supposed to stay aloof from the cut and thrust of mundane politics. On a visit to southern Iran last month he praised the government and stressed that he intervened only when he felt that “expediency is ignored”. But each time Mr Ahmadinejad forces him to interfere in low politics, Mr Khamenei’s position looks a little shakier. The supreme guide is no longer infinitely above Mr Ahmadinejad; he is part of the competition.