The Iran dilemma

FT.com, In the nuclear stand-off with Iran, the US has often appeared the weaker party, pressing others to punish Tehran, but in effect standing helpless while Iran pushed ahead with its nuclear programme.

Over the past year, however, the White House’s discourse has been more confident. Iran’s dismissal of Barack Obama’s offer of engagement hardened the international consensus for tougher sanctions. This year’s raft of sanctions has been effective in exacerbating the Iranian economy’s isolation.

Whether by the US’s own design or not, mysterious sabotage efforts have unsettled Iran’s regime and, many experts think, set back the nuclear programme. A November re­port by UN inspectors said Teh­ran had temporarily halted low-level uranium enrichment, suggesting technical problems.

The regime has plenty to be anxious about, from the unexplained killings of its scientists – two last year – to the Stuxnet worm that infected several Iranian facilities. Iran is starved of financing, global energy companies have pulled out of oil and gas projects and gasoline suppliers have curbed shipments.

Good news for Washington and its allies. But there is little sign of a change of heart in Tehran. Even US officials accept that economic damage alone is far from certain to convince Tehran to bow to international demands. Iran did return to the negotiating table in December. But in the recent talks in Geneva Iranian negotiators were as adamant as ever that enrichment was not negotiable.

Despite signs of difficulties – partly due to the poor quality of centrifuges – Iran’s stock of low enriched uranium has continued to climb. A big unknown is whether the regime has built clandestine facilities with more sophisticated centrifuges. And Iran can learn to adapt to sanctions and sustain higher costs as long as it can sell its oil at respectable prices.

The Obama administration can claim to have bought itself some time before it might be forced to take the more complex decision: whether to accept deterrence as a way of keeping a nuclear Iran in check or resort to the more dangerous option of military force.

Crucially, sanctions have helped convince Israel not to rush into a military adventure, which could unleash an uncontrollable regional war. That Iran is feeling the pain also placates Mr Obama’s domestic critics, who had been clamouring for tougher action against Tehran.

Given the hard choices, the US is managing the dilemma by showing Tehran that defiance carries a heavy price.

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