Widening arc of uncertainty

By Abdullah Al Shayji, Special to Gulf News

Sectarian strife, Washington's dwindling influence and the Iran factor threaten to push the region into an abyss

From the Mediterranean shores to the mountains of Afghanistan and everywhere in between seems to be in a state of flux. There is a grim possibility of a breakdown of the regional security system with scenarios of more than one war threatening to push the region into an abyss.

It seems we are approaching a boiling point in our beleaguered region. There is a siege mentality due to domestic tensions, turmoil and the heightened sectarian strife which has emerged in more than one country from Iraq to Lebanon and Egypt to Kuwait and Bahrain lately.

There is a real fear that a breakdown of this precarious tense climate could spiral out of control. Elsewhere, Pakistan is also teetering on the brink of collapse, an alarming situation considering that Pakistan is a nuclear power. Afghanistan is another hotbed of turmoil and instability considering how the US and its Nato allies are bogged down in a quagmire with no end in sight. It was heartbreaking to see the Afghan president crying and dispirited the other day because of the sorry state of affairs in his country.

Iraq is in its seventh month of political paralysis and there is no end in sight to the horse-trading and jockeying for power. Iraq has broke the world record in its attempt to form a cabinet. A solution won't come from Baghdad, but from Tehran which has invested heavily in Iraq and from Washington whose influence is dwindling. It is ironic, that both these powers seem to back Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki for a second term. After all these years, Iraq's sovereignty still hangs in the balance.

The Middle East peace process is stuck once again due to Israeli intransigence and the US failing to live up to its promises. Stephen Waltz criticises the US for reaching "a new low in the Middle East diplomacy" and laments the US policy of rewarding Israel with more carrots instead of the brandishing the stick.

Failure to achieve a breakthrough

I have repeatedly argued in this column that a failure to achieve a breakthrough in this vexing crisis would impact negatively on all other flashpoints, complicate the tense situation, embolden US enemies, embarrass the US's moderate allies in the region and further sink the US's image in a region where anti-Americanism is n ot in short supply.

It's ironic that US policy-makers and the military, think-tanks, academics and polls all indicate and warn about the negative impact of not having a lasting and comprehensive peace, but it is baffling that the US keeps squandering all its chances to heal this festering wound.

Tensions are mounting between Israel and Hezbollah while Lebanon is in the intensive care unit over the UN international tribunal which seems to indict elements of Hezbollah for the assassination of former prime minister Rafik Hariri in 2005.

Lebanon is wearily wedged between a devastating war with Israel and a sectarian blowout between Hezbollah forces and the Sunnis over the Hariri tribunal's forthcoming verdict. In the Lebanese press, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's visit to Lebanon has sparked alarming reports of Hezbollah planning to take over the whole country.

In all this, Iran is facing crushing United Nations sanctions. With more energy and other companies pulling out of Iran, the uncertain situation is pushing regional states to scramble for unprecedented arms deals.

The Gulf Cooperation Council states finding themselves between Iran, Iraq and a hard place, have opted to boost their military arsenals to protect themselves from any escalation of tension in the Gulf region.

The possibility of a showdown with Iran is the driving factor behind these huge military deals. The Financial Times said "Gulf states are ramping up arms expenditure with Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait and Oman all set to spend a total of $123 billion on US arms. And the US and the Saudi Arabia will establish a long military partnership between the two countries".

One can cut the tense atmosphere and apprehension in the region with a knife. There is a great deal of apprehension among the elite and among academics and among ordinary people who see the Iranians' imprint all over the place.

Al Watan, the leading Kuwaiti newspaper, described the "Fear of Shiite Iran has reached new heights in the Gulf's Sunni-led Arab states, where arms deals worth $122.8 billion have been signed with US companies. From Kuwait to Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, Iran's widening political and military influence is raising tension within local Shiite communities and provoking what some analysts see as exaggerated fears."

Modernising armed forces

Saudi Arabia has embarked on a huge $67 billion drive to modernise its armed forces with everything from jets to armoured vehicles and frigates. The UAE is spending more than $35 billion to strengthen its military, adding up to 80 Rafale fighters to its sizeable air force.

There is no letdown in this region, the worst-case scenarios could blow out at any time. The unintended consequences would be extremely destabilising considering the US preoccupation with its mid-term election. Washington's perceived dwindling posture and influence could entice its detractors and opponents to seize the opportunity in a grossly miscalculated move which would prove to be very costly.

There is a sense of fatalism in the region, with an appropriate motto ‘Prepare for the worst and pray it won't happen!' We hope so!

Dr Abdullah Al Shayji is the Chairman of the Political Science Department at Kuwait University.