Sunni-led Arab states on alert over Shia Iran

The Financial Times

When the Kuwaiti cabinet voted this week to revoke the citizenship of Yasser al-Habib, a Shia cleric, some analysts claimed his “shameful acts” had been encouraged by Iran.

Mr Habib’s alleged crime was to have repeatedly insulted Aisha, a wife of the Prophet Mohammed particularly revered by Sunni Muslims.

In May, the Kuwaiti authorities detained several people, including some locals, and accused them of spying on installations on behalf of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Fear of Shia Iran has reached new heights in the Gulf’s Sunni-led Arab states, where arms deals worth $122.8bn have been signed with US companies. From Kuwait to Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, Iran’s widening political and military influence is raising tension with local Shia communities and provoking what some analysts see as exaggerated fears.

Saudi Arabia has embarked on a huge $67bn drive to modernise its armed forces with everything from jets to armoured vehicles and frigates. The United Arab Emirates is spending more than $35bn to strengthen its military, adding up to 80 Rafale fighters to its sizeable air force.

“You could cut the tense atmosphere and apprehension here with a knife,” says Abdullah al-Shayji, head of political science at Kuwait University, referring to the cabinet decision against the Shia cleric. “There is a great deal of apprehension among elites and among academics and among ordinary people who see the Iranians’ imprint all over the place.”

Kuwait is not alone in betraying its anxiety at what is seen as Iranian ambition. Those fears are exacerbated by the knowledge that the US will withdraw all its forces from Iraq by the end of next year.

At its closest point, Iran is only 29 miles away from the Arab Gulf states. They are increasingly concerned by Iran’s alleged pursuit of nuclear weapons and its support for Shia militant groups in Lebanon and Iraq to project its power.

Iran often plays down Gulf states’ concerns, saying that it is the presence of the US in the region that is the source of tension. Iranian officials have called for a regional security arrangement, but one which would follow the departure of US troops.

In July, Yousef al-Otaiba, the UAE’s ambassador to the US, said in unusually frank comments that his country feared a nuclear-armed Iran and the US should “absolutely” use force to halt Tehran’s nuclear programme.

The UAE’s armed forces “wake up, dream, breathe, eat, sleep the Iranian threat”, added Mr Otaiba. “It’s the only conventional military threat our military plans for, trains for, equips for.”

The UAE foreign ministry moved to disassociate itself from his comments and, like other Gulf states, seeks to maintain cordial relations in public with Iran.

The UAE is a significant trading partner with Tehran, but remains at loggerheads with the Islamic Republic over three contested islands in the Gulf.

“We are witnessing a major change in the perception of the average citizen of the Gulf region. Iranian interventionist policy is a major concern in the region from Lebanon to Palestine to Iraq and possibly to Yemen,” said Mustafa Alani, adviser at the Gulf Research Centre in Dubai.

In Bahrain, the ruling Khalifa family is cracking down on elements of the archipelago’s majority Shia community ahead of parliamentary elections due next month.

The Bahraini government has alleged these groups receive foreign funding. But human rights activists say the Shia suffer discrimination and their legitimate complaints are being met with force.

Support for Bahrain from other ruling families up and down the Gulf, all of them Sunni, has been vociferous.

The six-nation Gulf Co-operation Council has said it wants Britain to deal seriously with Bahraini “terrorist” groups who it says have taken refuge in the UK. Some states try to adopt a conciliatory line. The Sultanate of Oman, which is outside the Strait of Hormuz, maintains closer ties with Iran than other members of the GCC.

Further north, Dubai, the commercial capital of the UAE, is home to a substantial Iranian population.

But for most, fears that the US withdrawal from Iraq will leave a vacuum which Iran is preparing to fill are palpable.