Will US attack Iran?

The Voice of Russia

Tehran’s nuclear program has long been a corner-stone in its relationship with the United States. Economic sanctions have rallied Iranians against Washington and its allies. Is a U.S. invasion of Iran possible and what effect will it have? Rajab Safarov, General Director of the Center for Modern Iran, fears the world is on the brink of a global conflict:

"I think that the passive position of Russia encourages the West to behave more boldly and cynically towards Iran. Russia is a major player in international politics. If it sticks to a position that an invasion or any other military solution to the Iranian issue must not take place under any circumstances, then Americans will adjust their plans on Iran."

In Mr. Safarov’s view, the key aim the Americans have in mind is a change of regime in Iran. Barack Obama intends to pull troops out of Iraq. But instead of going home, they will be moved to Afghanistan. As long as the current Iranian regime stays at power, the United States can hardly hope to attain success in either Iraq or Afghanistan. A massive attack against Iran can create the illusion that the Obama Administration has won but only for a short time.

Ruslan Pukhov, head of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, looks into a possible military scenario:

"The most effective blow on Iran would be a direct strike involving Israeli military aircraft (between 32 and 40 warplanes) and the U.S. Navy with the likely task of sowing chaos and destroying the nuclear infrastructure. The raid could be carried out via Turkey, a NATO member-state, or via Saudi Arabia. The Iranian Air Force with just five outdated F-14s, five Soviet-made planes received as reparation after the war with Iraq, 30 French Mirages and 20 Iranian planes of the F-4 type will be unable to repulse the superior enemy. Iran has very few air-to-air missiles. The majority of its missiles are outdated. Iran’s anti-aircraft defense inherited from the Shah’s regime is made up of French, Chinese and Russian systems. The expected supply of S-300s from Russia would have strengthened the Iranian air defense. During a potential conflict, Iran could hope to bring down between 2 and 4 enemy planes. On the other hand, as it has lots of allies outside its borders, chances of an asymmetric response are fairly high: Shiite minorities in neighboring countries might successfully attack U.S. bases in their neighborhoods."

Maxim Kalashnikov, an essayist and futurologist, feels that a military scenario is not at all unlikely:

"For the American elite that has long become transnational, Iran is a Gordian knot, cutting which could help drive recession outside the U.S. economy. In that case, the Caspian Sea will be divided along the central line and pipelines will be turned towards Europe. The split of Iran will cut off the fast-growing Chinese and Indian economies from hydrocarbons. While Europe and the United States were absorbed in playing post-industrialism, the industry moved to China and India, to Asia. A possible U.S. strike against Iran will probably be a mix of an air and media attack with an attempt to bribe the local elite and stoke separatism, first the Kurdish and then the Azeri one. The U.S. will have no need to bomb the whole of Iran but just cut off Khuzestan whose oil and gas complex feeds the entire nation."