Challenges ahead for Ahmadinejad

guardian.co.uk

Another ceremony, another stage decorated with the Islamic republic's flag, a long line of yellow daffodils and photos of martyrs of the revolution. One chief of justice, Ayatollah Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi, one speaker of the parliament, Ali Larijani, and one man who claims to be the president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, taking the oath of office to be "at the service of the people".

Iranians have seen hundreds of these faked ceremonies, and yet, 30 years on from the revolution of 1979, this was probably the one they least believed. It might have been an easy ceremony to perform but, this time, it was very difficult to make it convincing.

Ahmadinejad's position is increasingly challenging. According to the constitution he has to present his cabinet to the parliament two weeks after being sworn in. Yet only last week he caused a serious crisis just by mentioning his choice of vice-president, Esfandyar Rahim Mashaei. The supreme leader disagreed and 205 members of parliament wrote a letter questioning his wisdom. He then removed the man from that post only to put him back as his chief of staff – inviting yet another barrage of criticism.

In his first term, too, Ahmadinejad had to spend almost nine months trying to get approval for key ministers in his cabinet. And by the end of his first term a total of 12 members of his cabinet had gone.

Apart from one who died of natural causes, the others were either sacked or had to resign. Many were unknown faces and regarded as having little or no experience in politics. Several had given false information about their education and background. Four ministers had faked having a PhD, another had faked a scientific discovery and was consequently taken to court by the person who had the copyright, and another had claimed to be the member of an international scientific association in New York but that association denied such a membership.

Thus we can only expect a long wait before all ministers are approved by the parliament. In the websites of the right and far right there are several lists of names proposed to Ahmadinejad for his cabinet. The Supreme Leader is cautioning him on his choice of cabinet and the speaker of the parliament warned him yesterday to make sure he abides by the constitution when presenting his cabinet.

More than 40 members of the minority parties did not attend his swearing-in ceremony yesterday and the chances are that he will face a crisis of authority and legitimacy not just from the reformists but also from the politicians of right and centre in the parliament.

Away from the political scene Ahmadinejad has angered many by his abysmal performance in handling Iran's complex economic problems. His only policy line, "fighting poverty and equality in distribution of wealth" has failed. The rate of inflation is 30%, making it impossible for the poor to cope with rising prices; the rate of poverty, according to official figures, is 18% and rising. Ahmadinejad's style of fighting poverty – direct distribution of cash among the poor – may have brought him votes, but it has angered many Iranian economists who see it as throwing away extra revenue from oil. They are calling instead for a comprehensive strategy to eradicate poverty.

Yet the economy may be the least of his worries. The most important would be to know what to do with the opposition and their leadership. The faces that were missing from both the confirmation and inauguration ceremonies – Rafsanjani, Khatami, Mousavi, Karoubi – or those detained and imprisoned – Abtahi, Atrianfar, Hajarian, Tajzadeh and many more – have been the pillars of the Islamic republic and have customarily attended every ceremony. Their unprecedented absence indicates the end of their tolerance for faked shows.

What will Ahmadinejad do with them? The show trials and fabricated website reports have already accused them of the worst crime: that of plotting in conjunction with the west for a "colour revolution". Can the establishment afford yet another crisis by openly punishing, imprisoning or killing these people? It has done so several times before but not en masse and not in those high ranks. Such action may polarise the society even further and potentially lead to armed confrontation.

With all those challenges it is not surprising that Ahmadinejad considers relations with the west as the least of his worries. He says he does not care if "they do not congratulate him, weep or smile". Now he has left the west even more confused than before and may face sanctions if he does not meet the September deadline as set by Obama to "engage" with the US.

"He has been inaugurated," said the White House spokesman, Robert Gibbs. "Whether any election was fair, obviously the Iranian people still have questions about that and we will let them decide that."

And those questions about the legitimacy of this presidency will be Ahmadinejad's most serious challenge. Many Iranians who have been involved in or indeed been watching nervously the events of the past seven weeks have serious doubts about his authority and his claim to "serving the people". The horrendous experience of young Iranians being attacked, beaten, tortured and killed simply for attending peaceful demonstrations has destroyed the small ray of hope that the young had for being heard by their government.

Ahmadinejad may still have the cautious support of the leader and the military might of the Islamic establishment – the Revolutionary Guards and Basij militia – but he has a huge challenge convincing the young and the educated in Iran that he is their president.