Time's running out for Obama in Iran

guardian.co.uk

Barack Obama's policy of engagement with Iran – the "unclenched fist" of his January inaugural address – has about 60 days left to run. If Tehran does not respond positively and credibly to his offer of dialogue on nuclear and regional issues by the end of September, all bets are off. At that point, US and European officials say, a new international coalition will set to work on possibly the toughest sanctions imposed on a single country since Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990.

The threat of punitive sanctions, with or perhaps without UN security council blessing, is designed to concentrate minds in Tehran distracted by the divisive aftermath of June's presidential election. But it also serves to discourage the Israelis – at least for now – from taking matters into their own hands by launching a unilateral military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities. Israel's leaders do not believe dialogue or sanctions will work. But they calculate cynically that they must give Obama's diplomacy a chance to fail.

When Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel's prime minister, met Obama in Washington in May, a rough year's-end deadline for progress was agreed. But the reported steady advance in Iran's nuclear capabilities (Israeli officials claim it could test-detonate a nuclear device within 12 months), coupled with its snubbing of Obama's initiatives have brought forward that deadline for action.

Diplomats confirm discussions are already underway between the US, Britain, France and Germany on a list of "sanctions options" that may be pursued if Iran has not responded positively by the end of the the UN's 64th General Assembly meeting in New York on September 30. The measures include future investment bans, additional curbs on Iranian banks and businesses, bans on insurance for companies trading with Iran, and a possible effort to cut off its petrol imports, which account for 40% of annual consumption. A ban on Iranian ships and planes docking and landing in western countries is reportedly another longer-term option.

A sign of things to come is a bill, authored by US senator Joe Lieberman and now well-advanced in the US Senate, that would punish European and Asian companies that export petrol to Iran. Hawkish voices on the American right are cheering on this effort. "The one thing we can do, and should do immediately, is cut off their gasoline," said Kathleen Troia McFarland, a former official in the Nixon and Reagan administrations. "It will encourage Iranian citizens … to take to the streets again to protest an incompetent government. Then they can change their regime themselves."

While also urging swift action, John Bolton, George Bush's UN ambassador, appears to have concluded already that only military action will do. "With each passing day, Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile laboratories, production facilities and military bases are all churning. Israel is focused on these facts, not the illusion of 'tough' diplomacy … It will have to make a decision soon, and it will be no surprise if Israel strikes by year's end," Bolton told the Wall Street Journal.

While Iran continues to insist that it does not seek nuclear weapons capability, and no concrete proof exists to refute its contention, the US, its western allies and neighbouring Arab countries all believe it is lying and will continue to obfuscate and delay substantive talks. Writing in the Israeli newspaper Ha'aretz, Amos Harel noted with evident satisfaction the way opinion had turned around since Obama's moment of hope in January.

"The Americans are for the first time showing more understanding for Israel's view," Harel said. "The US is more sceptical than before about the likelihood that a diplomatic dialogue, or even harsh sanctions should that option fail, will dissuade the Iranians from their goal."

Underscoring the slide towards confrontation, neither the Pentagon nor the Israeli Defence Force made any effort to conceal a recent joint exercise at Nellis air force base in Nevada, named Red Flag, that featured the in-flight refuelling of Israeli jets by US military planes. Such refuelling skills will be required in any long-range Israeli air attack on Iran. This event, plus vice-president Joe Biden's comment that the US will not "dictate" to Israel on Iran, have weakened the idea of a blanket Obama veto on Israeli military action.

Humiliated by North Korea's nuclear defiance, struggling to keep Israel on side in planned Middle East peace talks, and with engagement undermined by the regime's brutality, Obama still wants to talk to Iran – but may lack the political strength to keep the path to dialogue open much longer. His officials are already anticipating that moment.

"If the engagement process is not successful, the US is prepared to press for significant additional sanctions," US defence secretary Robert Gates said in Israel. "We would try to get international support for a much tougher position … Our hope remains that Iran will respond to the president's outstretched hand in a positive and constructive way. But we'll see."