All eyes increasingly are on Iran

Winnipeg Free Press Middle East

TEL AVIV -- Israel has followed the parliamentary election in Iran Friday with great interest and concern. The expected victory of the hardliners in the 290-member parliament has practically assured Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's re-election for a second term in June 2009.

The regional and international implications of Iran's ambitions are at the centre of visits to Israel this week by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and U.S. Vice-President Dick Cheney.

Iran's nuclear ambitions also played an important part in President Shimon Peres' official visit to Paris last week for extensive discussions with French President Nicolas Sarkozy.

There are no differences of opinion between these four countries on the dangers of Iran's ambitions, although there are nuances in the attitudes of each of them -- Israel being the most extreme, Germany the more moderate.

Iran's political ambitions are no less dangerous than its nuclear ones. Iran is trying to become the religious reference to Arab Shiites scattered across the region. There is no need to stress the subversive implications of such an intention. Except for Syria, no other Sunni Arab country is ready to accept such an Iranian ambition.

In preparing the talking-points for Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's discussions with Merkel and Cheney, Israeli officials have recalled that during the Cold War, the Western world and its Arab allies did not accept Egypt's Gamal Abdul Nasser's pro-Soviet alliance and his regional ambitions. Led by Saudi Arabia and assisted unofficially by Israel, they stood up to Nasser's subversion and coalesced against his ambition to extend his influence beyond Egypt's borders, first by his union with Syria and then through his assistance in the overthrow of the royal regime in Yemen.

A similar situation exists now with Iran's Ahmadinejad.

As a result of Iran's aggressiveness, it has become extremely difficult to build a stable Iraq. Together with Syria, and through its Hezbollah proxy, Iran is defeating all attempts to elect a new president in Lebanon. Through Hamas and Islamic Jihad, Iran has established a "presence" in the Gaza Strip and is making a similar effort in the West Bank. On the regional level, Iran is working systematically to undermine the American military presence in the Persian Gulf, thus trying to make itself the only regional power capable of influencing the security of oil -- both in quantities and prices.

On the eve of Merkel's emotional, but very friendly visit, Israel has gone on high security alert, for fear that Hezbollah would carry out a "revenge attack" at the end of the customary 40-day mourning for the killing of the arch-terrorist Imad Mugniyeh, in a car bombing in Damascus on Feb. 12. Hezbollah identified Mugniyeh this week as "the architect of South Lebanon defences" during the Second Lebanon War in July and August of 2006.

Merkel's visit to Jerusalem is very emotional and is evoking many memories. Her friendship toward Israel is proven and her commitment to its security and survival is unshaken. Merkel came to Israel accompanied by seven ministers, including the ministers of foreign affairs, defence and economic co-operation. After an unprecedented joint cabinet meeting in Jerusalem on Monday, Israel and Germany signed several agreements for cooperation in the fields of security, high-tech, education and commerce. Merkel will end her visit to Israel -- the third since she became chancellor -- today after addressing the Knesset in German.

In her political discussions with Olmert, Defence Minister Ehud Barak and Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, Merkel stressed the need for Israel to reach a peace agreement with the Palestinians, according to the Quartet-supported Roadmap and the Annapolis principles. Merkel believes that the solution of "two states" -- Israel and Palestine -- living side by side in peace and security, is more urgent for Israel than for the Palestinians. She pledged Germany's full support in return for any risks that Israel might take. "An attack on Israel is an attack on Germany," Merkel said.

In his visit to Israel later this week, Cheney is expected to push harder for an Israeli-Palestinian peace. He will be followed early next month by U.S.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. The U.S. is determined to achieve some progress before President George W. Bush's visit to Israel in May to mark Israel's 60th anniversary.

Cheney's visit to Iraq, Israel, Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf, comes on the fifth anniversary of the U.S.-led war in Iraq on Wednesday. The political unrest in Lebanon, Iran's subversion and its nuclear ambitions, the violence in Gaza, the sky-high oil prices that risk to destabilize the world's economy are subjects to be discussed by Cheney with the region's leaders.

Needless to say, from Israel's point of view, Iran's nuclear ambitions are the most important.

The U.S. wants Saudi Arabia to show more flexibility towards Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki Shiite-led government as a counter-balance to Iran's influence in Baghdad. So far, Saudi Arabia has been reluctant to do so. Would Saudi Arabia change its position after Ahmadinejad's recent victory in the Iranian parliamentary elections? We'll see.

Samuel Segev is the Winnipeg Free Press Middle East correspondent. He is based in Tel Aviv.