Ahmadinejad's last stand

By JOSHUA D. GOODMAN (Middle East Times)

Under fire domestically for failing to deliver on his economic promises, is Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's controversial presidency nearing its end?

The answer to this question should become clearer when Iranians head to the polls in the March 14 elections for the eighth Majlis (parliament). While elections in Iran tend to be fraudulent – rife with corruption and ballot manipulation – the results do offer insights into the internal political dynamics of the Islamic republic. The upcoming elections will be no different, and will likely highlight the growing divisions within the ruling conservative, or principlist, strand of Iranian politics. Moreover, a poor showing in the parliamentary elections will almost certainly weigh ominously for 2009 presidential elections.

Since being elected in February 2005 on a wave of populist economic promises, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's political standing has steadily declined.

The results of the 2006 elections for the city councils and the Assembly of Experts, in which Ahmadinejad's mentor Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi finished a surprising sixth, were widely seen as a popular rebuke of the president's policies. More significant, Ahmadinejad has lost the support of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who last month publicly backed the parliament in a dispute over the president's decision to dissolve key economic institutions, a move that would have given Ahmadinejad greater control over the economy. In a subsequent speech, the supreme leader refrained from praising the government, as he commonly does, offering a more critical assessment: "the government has certain unique characteristics, but like any other government there are mistakes and shortcomings."

Ahmadinejad's Achilles' heel has been the economy – the issue he thought would be his strength. Inflation is rising, with official numbers showing an increase from 12 percent in 2006 to 19 percent in 2007. Analysts suspect the real number is much higher. He has also been hurt by his inability to resolve Iran's growing oil and gas crisis. Despite abundant domestic energy reserves, the country lacks the necessary refining capabilities and thus, has to import oil to meet domestic needs. With rising oil prices, Ahmadinejad has tried to ration supply despite growing demand – a problem exacerbated by the unbearably harsh winter this year.

The debate over Ahmadinejad's policies has been contentious and public. The recent U.S. National Intelligence Estimate report, which seemingly eliminated the possibility of a U.S. military strike, negated the necessity for Iran to present a unified front, and has allowed the real divisions to surface. For example, one poster in opposition to Ahmadinejad depicts him as Hitler, insinuating that the leader's extremist policies are leading Iran to the brink of disaster.

In response, Ahmadinejad has attacked the critics of his tactics and policies, labeling them as "traitors." In an effort to blur these obvious divisions, Khamenei recently implored all participants to act with dignity: "I strongly request all those who like different candidates not show their support by destroying, insulting and accusing others."

The embattled president, however, is not going down without a fight. In order to quell the voice of dissent, the reformist ranks have been purged under the guise of candidate vetting. However, such efforts are misguided for two reasons. First, the reformist movement has yet to recover the ineffective presidency of Muhammad Khatami, and thus does not currently pose a real threat in elections. Second, and more importantly, the real challenge to Ahmadinejad's power derives from within his own principlist faction.

Led by three Ahmadinejad rivals, former Islamic Revolution Guards Corps chief Mohsen Rezaie, former nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani, and current mayor of Tehran Muhammad Baqer Qalibaf, the Broad and Popular Coalition of Principlists (BPCP) was established to provide a direct challenge to Ahmadinejad's United Front of Principlists (UFP).

Larijani, who resigned from his previous post on account of "ideological differences" with Ahmadinejad, has already registered for the parliamentary elections, while Qalibaf, who has become increasingly critical of the president, is widely considered to be a serious challenger for the presidency in 2009. (Note that both Qalibaf and Larijani ran against Ahmadinejad in the first round of the 2005 presidential elections.)

Ahmadinejad should be concerned about the BPCP challenge. In a recent interview, Larijani made it clear that under his lead, the parliament would "take fundamental steps to tackle issues like inflation and should be more active in diplomacy" – a direct attack against the president's policies. Moreover, Larijani is running from Qom city at the invitation of the Jameh Modarresin Hozeh Elmiyeh Qom, a powerful conservative seminary – thereby suggesting that he has the backing of influential clerics.

The UFP is going to great lengths to minimize the emergence of an alternative conservative faction. Ali Reza Zakani pledged that "if God forbid, the Principlists come up with separate lists and not a united one, we will not have a competition between ourselves." Meanwhile, in reference to Larijani, the executive secretary for the UFP, Shahbeddin Sadr, stated that "he is our favorite and we like him."

It would be as much a mistake to underestimate Ahmadinejad's political savvy as it would Larinjani's challenge. However, in order to have a chance at retaining his office in 2009, Ahmadinejad needs to curb his downward spiral. This coming election may well be Ahmadinejad's last stand.