War of a Thousand Paper Cuts Will Destroy Israel

BY YOUSSEF IBRAHIM
www.nysun.com

"Once the cow falters, knives and butchers multiply," an Arab proverb says. Unless it is clear-headed about Lebanon, Israel will end up with a cease-fire, leading to a war of attrition in which a constellation of jihadists will line up for their cut.

The queue may start with Hamas and other Palestinian Arab jihadists ready to launch a third intifada, but it includes Hezbollah's guerrillas at the Lebanese border and stretches all the way to Damascus and Tehran.

The seriousness of this situation is like nothing we have seen for 25 years. In the past 25 days, a new paradigm has emerged that says to every jihadist out there: Israel can be vanquished; its aura of invincibility is just a mirage, and it is high time for the "big push." The genie has to be forced back into the bottle, which cannot be done Iraq-style — on the cheap — as Israel's military and political leadership seem to think. Three strategic objectives must be tackled immediately:

1. Reinstitute the image of Israel's invincibility that was shattered by Hezbollah's rockets and tenacious resistance by mobilizing all of Israel's reserves to fight the war against Hezbollah — not against Lebanon, where Israel has many friends.

2. Direct the mighty Israeli air force to stop bombing Lebanon and start bombing Hezbollah's primary enabler, Syria, with crippling blows to its leadership, air force, infrastructure, and, yes, oil industry. A 21-day bombing campaign will shift the balance of power and encourage many friendly Lebanese to come out of hiding.

3. Promise a comprehensive peace settlement with Lebanon and moderate Palestinian Arabs, as well as generous financial aid from world donors, immediately after the dust settles — and mean every word of it. That will secure the Sunni Arab Muslim world's support. Why is such a drastic turnaround so crucial?

For years, Israel claimed that its survival was at stake, surrounded as it was by Arab armies. In fact, it had already destroyed each of them, in a matter of days. Now, however, anyone can see that Israel is indeed facing an existential threat — call it death by a thousand paper cuts. Israel's economy and a million of its citizens in the north cannot survive a war of attrition. Unless it is reinstituted with extreme ferocity, Israel's aura of invincibility will give way to a feeding frenzy of jihadi sharks and the collapse of a peacefully inclined but weak Lebanese government.

The apocalyptic scenario of an enemy within and a Shiite militia without comes with impressive numbers to back it up. Together with Hezbollah's sister Lebanese Shiite militia, Amal, and 1 million Shiites in Lebanon, Iraq and Iran's combined Shiite population of 100 million looms large. This huge force is poised to fight foes selected by the Hezbollah leader, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, and his masters.

I am not an alarmist, just an egoist. For after these jihadi hordes finish their work in Lebanon and Iraq, they'll come for the rest of us: moderate Arabs, secular Arabs, Christian Arabs, Kurds, Armenians, Druze, and eventually the Sunni Muslims (whom they are already cutting to pieces in Iraq).

In this "Spartacus"-like Shiite uprising, which began with the Iranian Revolution of 1979, those hanging on crosses all the way to the gates of Rome will be all the non-jihadists among us. This time around, the barbarians at the gate aren't just coming for the Jews, but also for what is left of Arab secularism and liberal Islam. That, again, is why a cease-fire will not do.

If we were to affix red pins to wherever jihadists are operating today on a map of the Middle East, red would be the color of Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Gaza, the West Bank, Jordan, Algeria, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia. So, once again, a cease-fire will not do.

If the mythology of Hezbollah survives the war in Lebanon without a demonstrable humiliation or defeat, the notion will spread that jihadists don't need armies, just some fighters and a bit of momentum.

That momentum has spread to Al Qaeda, which is now rallying to Hezbollah's side, as well as Hamas; the Muslim Brotherhoods of Egypt, Jordan, and Syria; Iran's mullahs, and all the jihadi franchises around the world. This is why a cease-fire will not do in the Israel-Hezbollah war.